Dogged on growth!

9 октября, 2021 от arto Выкл

The strongest dependence of the Russian economy from the price of oil is an indisputable fact. And no statements of officials who promise to reduce this dependence, no positive changes be brought from the oil needle. At the same time, the opinion on the impact of the fuel market to all other financial and economic indicators and processes are very different.

The users’s uninitiated in particular, users are confident that in the oil-producing (processing / transport) country gasoline or diesel fuel should be very shower, if not at all, free.

A number of specialists expect from prices on domestic gas stations adequate behavior and clear following world quotations.

Unfortunately, «amateurs», and experts express opinions that differ significantly from the real state of affairs. Almost 30 years have passed since the collapse of the Soviet Union, and the practice shows that the price of automotive fuel in our country can only change in one direction — the appreciation. The whole question is only in one thing: how fast?!

The head of the analytical center of the «Independent Fuel Union» of Grigory Bazhenov is confident that the reason contributing to the rapid and unregulated growth of gasoline prices and diesel fuel — non-professionalism, manifested in the actions of the Russian authorities. This specialist gives a disappointing forecast of rising fuel prices by the end of the year at least 1.5-2.0%. And the result of the next jump price will be reduced by the number of gas stations in the country and total fuel deficiency. And motorists as in Soviet times they will have to carry the canisters with a gasoline reserve in the trunk, so as not to be with an empty tank somewhere in the middle of the track between Pskov and the Grand Novgorod!

Disappointing data leads Rosstat. The agency indicates that only within one week (from August 10 to 16), gasoline prices increased in 74 of the country’s 96 regions. And this is at the moment when preparing for the next elections to the State Duma and the party of power is strongly interested in stability.

One can only assume that we are waiting after the completion of the elections and the victory of the United Russia!

The strongest growth of gasoline prices, according to the calculations of the department, fell into the following cities:

Against this background, the situation in Moscow and St. Petersburg looks almost like a calm (there is an increase, but only 0.5 and 0.2, respectively). But is it not lulling «before the storm»?!

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The situation formed at the moment of time on Russian gas stations is estimated to be labeled as a «pending price increase», which is provoked by the growth

Wholesale fuel prices. There, the increase in cost was recorded at the beginning of the past, 2020 and continues to this day.

According to Gregory Bazhenov, the main reason for the formation of such a problem is the rules of pricing, formed by the Russian government itself. The state does not regulate the wholesale prices, but actively restrains the increase in the cost of fuel in the retail network. The result of such a «grief-control» is purely economic, in which «a small part of the fuel volume becomes decisive, in the formation of gasoline prices for the country’s domestic market.

Few people know that the key link determining the market prices for fuel sold in Russia is the St. Petersburg International Commodity Exchange. Therefore, any, but market levers in pricing issues are still present. And the price itself is determined by the demand, limited capacity of the market itself, as well as the «manageable» proposal. Installed at once by two departments (Ministry of Energy and the Federal Antimonopoly Service) regulations prescribe companies to sell through the stock exchange to 11% of gasoline and up to 7.5% of diesel fuel.

It cannot be said that the departmental structures do not do to keep the prices of the Academy of Sciences in the domestic market. Thus, on August 16, the press of the Ministry of Energy of the Russian Federation published a decision to increase the volume of fuel to be implemented through the stock exchange immediately by 1%: up to 12 on gasoline and up to 8.5 per diesel.

Our priorities

The fuel market in Russia is a unique education, which, perhaps, there are no analogues in the world. We are tied to the market that operates according to the rules of market parity. Namely: the price of the external market is artificially driven to the realities of the market within the country. Decisions are made in such a way that the manufacturer is still equal to which market (internal or external supply fuel.

Of course, we have already tried to «in the vague 90s) to completely release prices, attaching them to a single market mechanism. The refueling immediately was empty, and the fuel deficit became total by putting the country’s economy itself. Obviously, the state no longer wants to risk and experiment, the argument of the situation is critical. And this means that the managed, restrained increase in fuel prices will continue in the nearest and medium term. Moreover, at least, by the end of 2023, an annual increase in excise taxes on fuel (4%) per year is scheduled).

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The expert, on the basis of the study, concludes and predicts the speedy increase in fuel prices in the country. And this is all — despite all statements and certain actions taken by state structures to stabilize the state of affairs in the retail network. Nevertheless, Bazhenov is confident that the rise in prices will be 1.5-2.0% by the end of the year. How to express in ruble equivalent for the end user?

Already now gas stations to cope with the increased tax burden, you will have to increase the price of a gasoline liter on average by 3-4 rubles. But you need a little profit!

This market segment is in a very unstable position. And an effective solution, calm, without shock, out of crisis, unfortunately, no. The state will continue to control the situation in manual mode, restraining the uncontrollable price increase. The gas stations and manufacturers will still be for the new solutions of the authorities, and the motorists remain only to pay extra for the fuel!

Perhaps we will save us to the transition to electric cars. But where are they in mass production?